Here’s an excellent quote form Winston Churchill, eminently applicable as the proper attitude to adopt in risk management. The sentence comes after Churchill summarises the beliefs and convictions taken by the then British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain on what Hitler will do the the limits of what he will do, taking the position that he (Chamberlain) has taken the measure of Hitler, and that he (Hitler) has satisfied his territorial conquest needs:
“The Prime Minister is persuaded that… He believes that… Mr. Chamberlain is convinced that… But all this lies in the region of hope and speculation. A whole set of contrary possibilities must be held in mind. He may ask us to submit to things which we cannot endure; he may be forced to ask us to submit to things which we cannot endure.” (Churchill, the Second World War Volume 1, The Gathering Storm)
I like this ‘a whole set of contrary possibilities must be held in mind’ assertion. For this is what risk management is about – that things may not work out as we thought, or hoped, and we must be able to survive and recover when they do.
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