What Will Happen in Iran

Iran, the Middle East, and the world at large is at a crossroads. The worst thing that can happen is for the United States to leave the Islamic regime in power in Iran. Iran is a key member of the China, Russia, North Korea, Iran quad who aim to counterbalance the United States. 

Here's a few things that will happen if the regime is left in power:

1. The regime will crack down hard on dissenters. Tens of thousands of Iranians suspected of opposing the regime will be executed or imprisoned. Not a single possibility for dissent will be allowed.

2. Russia and China will re-arm Iran to make it even more costly for the US and Iran to try again. Iran may even host a Chinese naval base along its coastline.

3. The Gulf Arab states will have their worst fears confirmed, that the US is a fickle power that cannot be relied on for the long fight.

4. Iran will pursue a nuclear arms program with even more decisiveness. They may conduct the research in North Korea to keep away from Israel's long hand.

5. Iran will increase funding and intensity of activities for terrorist activities that produce social divisiveness in Western countries.

Despite the immense negative consequences of leaving the regime in power, there are strong forces that hinder the US from dismantling the regime:

1. Russia and China will discreetly assist Iran in resisting the US / Israeli efforts. While they will not directly intervene with their own military, anything they can do, especially deniable things, to make th situation more difficult for the US, they will do.

2. Opposition from the Democratic party, the left, and all Iran-funded lobbies.

3. The US desire to not put boots on the ground in Iran, to avoid casualties. Iran will let in militants from Iraq and Afghanistan to fight the Americans and inflict.

4. Israeli will likely not put any boots on the ground for fear of an IDF soldier being captured by the regime.

An unconditional surrender by the regime, with the regime left in power in Iran will have the same effect as just leaving the regime in power. 

An open-ended continuous striking of Iranian targets over the years will not work. The next US president may be not be inclined to continue it. The longer the conflict goes on, the more opportunity for Russia and China to supply Iran with intel and weapons to inflict cost to the US and Israel. 

There is no choice but to remove the regime as quickly as possible, and to put in the forces required to prevent it from regaining power.

Assorted

I saw a poster the other day which said something profound: "Your Attitude Determines Your Destination". In aviation, "attitude" refers to the vertical angle of the plane's body relative to the horizon. If the plane is looking up, it has a positive attitude. If you keep looking up, for the higher opportunities, that has a strong influence in your direction.

***

The present is a result of the past. Your present is a result of the decisions you made or did not make in your past. It's the result of actions you did or did not take in your past. Some of your peers are doctors because of a decision they made in the past, and the actions they took as a consequence of those that decision. You are not a doctor because either you did not make that decision. Perhaps you did not even think about that decision. 

Of course, not everything was in your control. Things happened in your past that were not a direct result of your decisions or actions. You could have lost your job due your employer's bankruptcy. You could have been in an accident that was not your fault. But the important thing to remember is that the present will soon become the past that will have determined your future. So be mindful of the decisions and actions you take today. Be aware of the decisions you are not taking, not even aware of, or not even considered. Be aware of the actions you are not taking.

Explain it to me like I'm 5

CEO: Explain AI to me like I'm 5 years old.

CTO: That's how I always talk to you.