Mar 16, 2026

What Will Happen in Iran

Iran, the Middle East, and the world at large is at a crossroads. The worst thing that can happen is for the United States to leave the Islamic regime in power in Iran. Iran is a key member of the China, Russia, North Korea, Iran quad who aim to counterbalance the United States. 

Here's a few things that will happen if the regime is left in power:

1. The regime will crack down hard on dissenters. Tens of thousands of Iranians suspected of opposing the regime will be executed or imprisoned. Not a single possibility for dissent will be allowed. The Iranian regime's prestige will rise amongst its admirers - it has survived the combined onslaught of the two "Satans". 

2. Russia and China will re-arm Iran to make it even more costly for the US and Iran to try again. Iran may even host a Chinese naval base along its coastline.

3. The Gulf Arab states will have their worst fears confirmed, that the US is a fickle power that cannot be relied on for the long fight.

4. Iran will pursue a nuclear arms program with even more decisiveness. They may conduct the research in North Korea to keep away from Israel's long hand.

5. Iran will increase funding and intensity of activities for terrorist activities that produce social divisiveness in Western countries.

Despite the immense negative consequences of leaving the regime in power, there are strong forces that hinder the US from dismantling the regime:

1. Russia and China will discreetly assist Iran in resisting the US / Israeli efforts. While they will not directly intervene with their own military, anything they can do, especially deniable things, to make the situation more difficult and costly for the US, they will do so.  The conflict provides a good opportunity to observe how the US plans and executes its fights, a good opportunity to test their own systems against the US, using Iranians as proxy.

2. Opposition from the Democratic party, the left, and all Iran-funded lobbies.

3. The US desire to not put boots on the ground in Iran, to avoid casualties. Iran will let in militants from Iraq and Afghanistan to fight the Americans and inflict much damage.

4. Israeli will likely not put any boots on the ground for fear of an IDF soldier being captured by the regime.

An unconditional surrender by the regime, with the regime left in power in Iran will have the same effect as just leaving the regime in power. 

An open-ended continuous striking of Iranian targets over the years will not work. The next US president may be not be inclined to continue it. The longer the conflict goes on, the more opportunity for Russia and China to supply Iran with intel and weapons to inflict cost to the US and Israel. 

There is no choice but to remove the regime as quickly as possible, and to put in the forces required to prevent it from regaining power.

Assorted

I saw a poster the other day which said something profound: "Your Attitude Determines Your Destination". In aviation, "attitude" refers to the vertical angle of the plane's body relative to the horizon. If the plane is looking up, it has a positive attitude. If you keep looking up, for the higher opportunities, that has a strong influence in your direction.

***

The present is a result of the past. Your present is a result of the decisions you made or did not make in your past. It's the result of actions you did or did not take in your past. Some of your peers are doctors because of a decision they made in the past, and the actions they took as a consequence of those that decision. You are not a doctor because either you did not make that decision. Perhaps you did not even think about that decision. 

Of course, not everything was in your control. Things happened in your past that were not a direct result of your decisions or actions. You could have lost your job due your employer's bankruptcy. You could have been in an accident that was not your fault. But the important thing to remember is that the present will soon become the past that will have determined your future. So be mindful of the decisions and actions you take today. Be aware of the decisions you are not taking, not even aware of, or not even considered. Be aware of the actions you are not taking.

Mar 6, 2026

Explain it to me like I'm 5

CEO: Explain AI to me like I'm 5 years old.

CTO: That's how I always talk to you. 

Nov 24, 2025

The Cost of Training

Before:

CFO: What if we train our employees and they leave?

CEO: What if we don't train them, and they stay?

Today:

CEO: What if we train our AI and they leave?

CIO: (And they 'leave'?!?) What if we don't train them, and they stay?

Oct 31, 2025

Accountant on a Ship

An accountant was taking a cruise on a luxury ship. Suddenly, she saw another passenger fall overboard. Panicking, the accountant screams: "Help! Help! Someone's fallen over! Someone's fallen over!" 

The ship's second mate hears her and shouts: "Which side did they fall? Port or starboard?

Accountant: Port...star...what?!?? (Then frantically points to the left) DEBIT SIDE! DEBIT SIDE! 

Sep 25, 2024

User Stories are not requirements

Treating user stories as requirements may not be too different from asking users to estimate how long it takes to do their tasks and using those estimates as your project estimates.

Feb 23, 2024

Santayana

Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

Those who are not aware of the past are condemned to repeat it.

History repeats itself because the past is not the dead past but a mirror (albeit incomplete) of the very much alive present and future.

Battle Success vs Project Success

Every battle between armies results in success for one side failure for one side. There is a winner and there is a loser (ignoring ties). That means 50% of battles are a success, and 50% of battles are failures. 

In contrast, 60-70% of projects fail (according to popularised stats). 

In other words, armies do better at succeeding against obstacles that ACTIVELY aim to LITERALLY devastate and rip them apart, than projects do against the comparatively passive triple constraints.   

(I know there's fatal flaws in this argument, but still).

Aug 11, 2022

Favourite TV Series

Top favourite TV series, not in any order. The ones I can watch over and over:

  • Buffy. All-time favourite. 'Once More With Feeling' is a supernatural tour de force. Perhaps the height of Joss Whedon's genius.
  • Yellowstone. Screenwriting is brilliant. Compelling characters.
  • Landman. Another Taylor Sheridan work.
  • Silicon Valley. I can watch the whole series every year and not get tired. Some episodes are uncomfortable and I wish they can be PG'd: the grafitti with Chuy Ramirez, the stallion mating in the stable, the Satanic baptism.
  • Fringe. Great fun because the science fiction covers physics, chemistry, biology, and not so much computers. Would not be as good without Walter and 'Asterisk'
  • The Crown.
  • Community. Really creative fun comedy.
  • Lioness.
  • Bosch. An ordinary police detective series that for some unexplainable reason is very good.
  • Luther
  • Line of Duty. One of the best ever detective shows.
  • The Shield. Great dialogues. Forrest Whittaker's guest character is unmissable.
  • Frasier
  • Cosmos. The one with Carl Sagan. 
  • Cosmos A Spacetime Odyssey (Cosmos: Possible Worlds was, painfully, nowhere near as good as the first two)
  • Firefly
  • Friends
  • Narcos
  • Fawlty Towers
  • Hot in Cleveland
  • Belgravia
  • Justified
  • Cobra Kai. Nostalgia trip, but way better than the original 80's movies. William Zabka is the standout actor here.
  • Sons of Anarchy
  • John Adams
  • Black Books. Crazy fun. Tamsein Greig at her best.
  • Maybe:
    • Picket Fences
    • Northern Exposure
Worth watching once:
  • Anne with an E. The first two seasons. The last season feels it became woke.
  • The Big Bang Theory (maybe the first 2-3 seasons only)
  • Sanditon
  • The X-Files
  • Sherlock
  • Breaking Bad
  • The Simpsons
  • Downton Abbey
  • Yes Minister / Yes Prime Minister
  • The IT Crowd
  • The Knick
  • Poldark (2015)
  • Jamestown
  • Chernobyl
Good ones, but didn't really like them that much:
  • Peaky Blinders

Jul 23, 2022

From Dreams to Reality

A dream written down with a date becomes a goal.

A goal written down with steps becomes a plan.

A plan backed by action becomes reality.