Assumptions

Until we develop the ability to see the future, projects and programmes will have to be run in the face of uncertainty.

In the absence of complete information, assumptions will have to be made. Otherwise decisions cannot be made and activities will stall. At least some of these assumptions are documented in the projects. In the more badly run projects, the assumptions are there uncritically reviewed. Because a project is proceeding as if these assumptions are valid, it is critically important to review the assumptions.

You are trying to cross a bridge and making the assumption that the floor is sound. You have several choices: make the assumption, and proceed to walk normally as if the assumption is correct. You can also make the assumption, keeping in mind that you could be wrong, and proceed with caution, testing every step to see if the assumption holds. You can also, before, proceeding, inspect the bridge, and gather more information about the assumption. How likely is the assumption to be correct? How likely is it wrong? Apart from
physical inspection you can observe the environment. Are locals crossing the bridge? Are there local experts who know if the bridge is sound?

Because the assumptions are the 'floor' on which the programme will be proceeding, it is critical to review these assumptions to see how sound they are. These assumptions should be looked at with the following filters:

• Are they complete? Are these the only critical assumptions?
• Are they valid? Are we making assumptions about things that are not already known to be false?
• Do we have a plan for reviewing the assumptions at a later date, when we may have more information and able to verify or reject the assumptions.
• Have we identified the risks that will arise if the assumptions on which we are proceeding are proven false?