I have quite a number of books in my library, virtually all of them non-fiction. I'm starting to think there's not enough time to read them all. Skimming each one doesn't really help me absorb them, so I thought it might be interesting to explore the books by reading Chapter 2 of each.
Today's book is Make Up Your Mind, by Hal Mooz. The author is well-known in the Systems Engineering community as co-author of Visualizing Project Management, and
Communicating Project Management.
Chapter 2 of this book is "Decision Fundamentals for Thinking Clearly". It's a short chapter and touches very briefly several topics relevant to thinking clearly.
We get a reminder that decision rigor is 'driven by the fear of a negative outcome'. This is something we all instinctly already know. We become more anxious when the decision has serious consequences (eg, which univerisity to go to), and are rightly less rigorous when the consequences are not serious (eg, what to have for lunch).
An interesting paragraph is on when do we actually 'make' a decision? Does deciding one way or another constitute making the decision or is further action required? Some decision experts say you make the decision when you irrevocably allocate resources. (I had not heard of this before. I think it's a good criteria). The author argues against it because it fails in some cases. His example is the decision to lose weight and deciding to eat less. Contrary to this criteria, the decider has actually decided NOT to allocate resources (food).
The author defines a good decision as 'applying informed judgment based on relevant facts and quality ethics to select an alternative and act on it'.
A short paragraph reminds us that the outcome does not define whether a decision is good or not. This is pretty much an obligatory topic in any decision making text. Another paragraph covers another obligatory topic -- the fallacy of sunk costs.
Mooz introduces a concept new to me: 'Cost / Price of Indifference'. It is the purchase price at which you don't care (emotionally) whether you get the goods or not. He suggests this is a time saving concept when purchasing or selling anything. Rather than agonising hours and hours over how much to bid, just bid at this price. He did not discuss this in the context of buying stock market shares. I think that will be interesting to consider.
There are two stages to decision-making. The first is Decision Preparation. This is about getting the decision statement right, setting up the decision type frame, and the decision solution frame correct. The second stage Deciding, which is about the act of selecting from the alternatives that were set up in the decision solution frame. (The author didn't mention this, but I recognise this 2-stage framework as classically systems engineering).
Other short topics covered is the decision maker's viewpoint, decision fitness, and decision fatigue. Decision Fitness is another concept I had not heard of before. This is a concept about the fitness of the person making the decision. They must be proficient at the following skills:
- Specifying the decision and context
- Determining the decision type
- Creating the decision type frame
- Developing the decision solution frame
- Creating viable alternatives
- Identifying and geting the comparative information
- Knowledgeably selecting the right judgment basis
- Skillfully applying the appropriate judgement process
A quick glance at the table of contents reveals many of these topics are covered in the rest of the book.
This is a short book. At only 166 pages and with larger than normal font, it is misleadingly light-looking. Judging from the concepts introduced in the Chapter 2, it seems like a concept-heavy, deeply useful text. Just considering the list of skills listed in order to be 'decision fit' shows you how much is required to be a good decision maker. I'm not sure this thin book will be able to cover what is required to be decision fit, but if it gives exposure and awareness of the concepts, it will be worth further study.
