Levels of Knowledge

According to Shoji Shiba, knowledge has several levels.  The first level is simply Exposure.  You've heard of Linux, you know what it is, you've had the chance to do some basic stuff with it, like listing the files on the system.  It is plain that such a level of knowledge is of very little use.

The second level is Skill.  At this level, one's knowledge has reached some usefulness. You know how to ride a bike, and you can use the bike to get you from A to B without much falling down.  At this level, your productivity is very basic and inefficient.  Workers who are at this level are not very effective.  They can do the job but need much supervision to ensure their work is satisfactory.

The third level is Understanding.  You have reached the level where you know what you are doing and can make effective decisions. 

The fourth, and final level is Mastery. You know how to use the skill at the highest levels and the highest effectiveness that the skill is able to deliver.  This is where you are most productive.

It takes time to develop Mastery.  It is worth taking the time to study the best ways to shorten the knowledge cycle from Exposure to Mastery.

SCERT Risk Management

After the project has been broken down into analysable components, we identify the source of the risk -- why is there uncertainty?  What is causing this uncertainty or variability?

By addressing the causes or sources of the variability we will be better able to respond to the causes in addition to the effects. 

Suppose we have identified a risk in the completion of the functional specification documents of a software development project.  What we mean is that we have identified an uncertainty in the completion of these documents.  They may take more or less time than expected.  What might be the causes of this risk? 

The specifications may take longer because the requirements may change as the project progresses.  The specifications will change in proportion to the change in requirements. 

The specifications may take longer because it may be realised later that the specifications do not cover its areas on the proper depth and scope.

These are two possible causes.  Notice that responses required to mitigate the uncertainty could be very different.  In the first cause, we need to look further at the requirements documents from which the specifications are being developed.   In the second cause, we need to look at how we can identify gaps in the specifications documents.  Of course it is possible that both causes occur.

Once we have identified the possible causes of the risks, we can proceed to identifying responses to address the  causes, the risk, and the risk events.

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References: Simister & Turner

SCERT Approach to Risk

A risk is an area of uncertainty.  This uncertainty can turn into risk events that may prove unfavourable to a project.  Risk events are not always necessarily unfavourable. 

Whether is will rain or not, for example, is a risk for someone planning to go on a picnic.  The risk events could be that it will rain heavily, or it will rain lightly, or it will not rain.  The area of uncertainty, that is, the risk, is the possibility of rain.

Managing project risks is about analysing the risks (uncertainties) that a project is facing, identifying the risk events that may come out of that risk, planning responses to these events, monitoring the chances of these events, and executing responses to the risk events.

The SCERT approach to managing risk begins with breaking down the project into manageable components.  Because nothing is certain, every single task in a project has some risk (uncertainty)  Much of that however, is handled in the scheduling process which (must have) used a probabilistic approach (for example a 3-point estimation in PERT).

We only look at the major uncertainties. 

Break the project into components. SCERT recommends no more than 20 components for large projects, and no less than 5 components for small projects.

If the concern is for risks affecting the schedule, breakdown the components by activities.  If the concern is risks affecting the cost of the project, breakdown the components by cost components, highlighting their expected costs. 

Once the project has been broken down into manageable components, the process of identifying the sources of risk (again, uncertainty) can be identified.

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