May 5, 2022

Invert the Problem

Charlie Munger is well-known for his admonition to 'always invert'. Was trying to understand what this technique was about. He has some good YouTube videos explaining how he uses it.

As far as I can tell, it works something like this.  If you wanted to figure out how to ensure your project ends up successful, you should also invert the problem and ask, how can you make the project fail? Understand the causes of failure, and then don't do them.  In addition to how you can make the project fail, think about what else can make the project fail, and then plan against them. The latter is more risk management though.

Jan 23, 2022

How to Arrive at the Perfect Solution to Any Problem

If your solution does not fix the problem, you have two options: 
  1. Revise the solution so it fits the problem. 
  2. Revise the problem so it fits the solution. 
 Option 2 is more cost-effective from a solution perspective.

Oct 30, 2021

The Children and the Donuts

Researchers placed young children in a room and gave each of them a doughnut, and a promise:" We'll be back in 30 minutes. If you don't eat your donut, we'll give you another donut." The researchers observed the children and followed their life for the next 40 years.

Some children didn't touch their donut, and waited for the researchers to come back. They led safe lives with moderate success.

Some children ate their donuts before the researchers even finished explaining. They became visionaries who refused to be bound by rules. Some became criminals.

Some children ate their donuts after 15 minutes of waiting.  They led happy lives.

Some children offered to buy other kids donuts. They became consumers.

Some offered their donuts to other kids. They became social workers.

Some children sold their donut to other kids. They became small business entrepreneurs.

Some children ate other children's donuts but not their own. They became politicians.

Some children took donuts from those who didn't want donuts and gave them to those who really wanted the donuts. They became socialists.

Some children sold their donut to other kids, and argued with the researchers that they are still entitled to another donut since they literally didn't eat their donuts. They became defense lawyers.

Some children bought donuts from other kids, and argued that *they* are the ones entitled to the future donuts, since the future donuts are contingent on who owned the donuts. They became derivatives traders.

Some children observed the researchers and tried to figure out what they were researching. They became sociologists and joined the team of researchers for the next 40 years.

Some children analysed their donut instead of eating them. They became scientists.

Some children ate their donut and claimed another child ate it. They also became politicians.

Some children wrote about the event. They became writers.

Some children forgot about eating the donut and wondered why the hole made donuts more fun. They becme philosophers.