The Systems Engineer Genie

A whimsical look at what it could be like if the genie has been trained as a Systems Engineer.

A man walks along the beach and comes across a magic lamp.  He rubs the lamp, and out comes a Genie.

“Greetings, Master, I am a Genie from INCOSE.  Your wish is my command.” says the Genie.

Excited, the man says: “I want a million dollars!” and holds out his hands, anticipating the goods.

But nothing happens.

The man demands: “Where’s my million dollars?”

Genie: “I am an SE Genie. That’s not how we work.  First, I have to understand what it is you want to achieve, and help you come up with the best solution.  Master, why do you need a million dollars?” 

Man: “What ?!? Ok I want a million dollars so I can quit my job not have to work anymore!  Give me my money!”

Genie: “Ok, so you’re not happy with your job.  We should look at the different possible solutions to that problem and not jump to conclusion about the solution.  For example, perhaps you can move to a different job?  I can grant you a new job.  Or how about I make it so that you enjoy your current job.  Say, if we make you the boss?”

Man: No, no, no!  I want a million dollars so I can enjoy myself.  So I can do what I want, like travel, eat good food and drink great wine.   I don’t want to work anymore.

Genie:  Ah I see.  Now, instead of a million dollars, what about a lifetime free air travel?  And lifetime free meal vouchers.

Man: No, I want money!

Genie: OK, I guess we have settled on the concept of operations. You get money, and spend it on whatever you like.  Now, let’s get the requirements right.  Are you talking about Australian dollars, US dollars, Brunei dollars, Hong Kong dollars?

Man: “US dollars! A million US dollars”

Genie: Great, How do you want to receive it? In cash? In coins? Deposited to your bank account? A lump sum? An annuity?

Man: “What?”

Genie: How does this requirement sound:  “The genie shall arrange to deposit a million US dollars into the following bank account XXX-XXXX no later than 5 business days from today.”

Man: Great! Let’s do it.

Genie: We’ll also need to agree on how you will VERIFY that you have received the million dollars.

Man: “What?”

Genie: Verification, how will you check that I have fulfilled your wish?

Man: Ok!  Uh… I will check my bank statement, and if I see a million dollars, then we’re fine.  I will also sign a document saying: WISH GRANTED.

Genie: Then we have to integrate the money into your life.  How will you explain this to the tax authorities?  Do you have any outstanding debt?  Should the money be placed under your name or to a legal entity?

Man: Forget about those things and just give me my damn million dollars!

Genie: We also need to think about the effectiveness of this proposed solution.  Like, will 1 million dollars be as as 2 million dollars?

Man: Just give me 100 million dollars !

Genie: Granted!

And the man got his 100 million dollars and got investigated by the tax authorities and his money got frozen by the anti-money laundering regulatory commission and the man spent the rest of his life paying legal defense bills, all because he ignored the sensible analysis required by the SE Genie.

The Likelihood of an Event

The biggest constraint in risk management, indeed the very reason for the existence of the discipline, is our inability to foresee what will happen next. 

In most cases where people have to manage the risk of an event, it is very common to rely on subjective estimates of the likelihood that the event will happen. It may be easy to deliver criticism of this approach, but alternative options are limited.  

An improvement over such a simplistic 'gut feel' approach is to incorporate the phenomenon that events of a smaller scale occur at a higher frequency than similar events of bigger scale.  Earthquakes of low magnitude occur very frequently. Killer earthquakes occur far less frequently. 

The relationship of the frequency between the two types of events is described a the Power Law Distribution.  If we keep track of smaller scale events, we will be able to predict with a certain degree of confidence the frequency of the bigger scale events.

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Deciding That a Crisis is Upon Us

A key challenge that needs to be met in the face of a serious situation is determining whether we are in a crisis or not? Whence is the transition from non-crisis to crisis? Is it time to initiate the crisis management plan, or not yet?

The US military gives us a good model of crisis with the DEFCON
status. It allows a staged reaction to a crisis that may be impending
or may not be impending.  It allows the military to prepare and also not to over-prepare.

As facts become known, and the understanding of the situation becomes more solid, the authorities are able to step up or step down preparations
and mobilisations for handling the crisis.

Business organisations would to well to think about a staged approach to
their crisis management plans.